V-Lab
Inmocemento S A Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
28.57%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
31.83%
increased by 3.06%
1 Month
33.59%
increased by 4.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3133 | 4.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.1892 | 2.54** |
| βGARCH | 0.3837 | 2.10** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.6178 | 1.62 |
0.573
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3133 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1892 | 2.54** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3837 | 2.10** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.6178 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.573
Half-life:
1 days
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