V-Lab
Toyo Securities Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
5.91%
1 Week
3.87%
1 Month
2.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 13, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 10.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6673 | 16.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -10.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0009 | 0.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5084 | 41.55*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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