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V-Lab

Toyo Securities Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

5.91%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

3.87%

decreased by 2.34%

1 Month

2.01%

decreased by 4.20%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Toyo Securities Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 13, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
10.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6673
16.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-10.06***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0009
0.03
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5084
41.55***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days