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V-Lab

Toyo Securities Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

33.31%

increased by 3.18%

1 Week

34.33%

increased by 4.20%

1 Month

35.27%

increased by 5.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Toyo Securities Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 13, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4377
9.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2627
13.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5421
13.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.9839
-39.64***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
3.97***

Persistence:

0.708

Half-life:

2 days