V-Lab
Toyo Securities Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
33.31%
1 Week
34.33%
1 Month
35.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 13, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4377 | 9.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2627 | 13.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5421 | 13.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.9839 | -39.64*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 3.97*** |
Persistence:
0.708
Half-life:
2 days
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