Skip to main content
V-Lab

Toyo Securities Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

26.02%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

27.32%

increased by 0.89%

1 Month

28.68%

increased by 2.25%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Toyo Securities Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 13, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.4010
1.50
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0636
0.87
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7539
9.42***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1075
0.23

Persistence:

0.754

Half-life:

2 days