V-Lab
Toyo Securities Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
26.02%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
27.32%
increased by 0.89%
1 Month
28.68%
increased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 13, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4010 | 1.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0636 | 0.87 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7539 | 9.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1075 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.754
Half-life:
2 days
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