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V-Lab

Toyo Securities Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

7.46%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

7.48%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

7.52%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Toyo Securities Co Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 13, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1073 trading days (~4.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3421
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9994
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-1,709.2970
-0.07
γ22,088.0890
0.69
γ3-293.1528
-0.12
γ4-322.4639
-0.16
γ5722.9974
0.39
γ6-1,353.9570
-0.83

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1073 days