V-Lab
Toyo Securities Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
27.68%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
35.50%
increased by 8.21%
1 Month
50.77%
increased by 23.48%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 13, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.55) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0429 | 0.40 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4963 | 4.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4390 | 9.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.5549 | -21.85*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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