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V-Lab

Founders 100 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

23.51%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Week

24.30%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

25.61%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Founders 100 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7922
17.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1264
2.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8562
19.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.03

Persistence:

0.856

Half-life:

4 days