V-Lab
Founders 100 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.51%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
24.30%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
25.61%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7922 | 17.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1264 | 2.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8562 | 19.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.856
Half-life:
4 days
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