V-Lab
Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
49.24%
increased by 1.13%
1 Week
49.94%
increased by 1.83%
1 Month
52.18%
increased by 4.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 21, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 15.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.5886 | 11.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0457 | 8.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9717 | 157.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 15.9810 | 0.52 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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