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V-Lab

Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

47.69%

increased by 0.54%

1 Week

48.98%

increased by 1.83%

1 Month

50.82%

increased by 3.67%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 21, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 154% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0275
2.45**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8015
30.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0424
2.70***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.8541
0.19
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2039
0.24
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5741
0.28

Persistence:

0.850

Half-life:

4 days