V-Lab
Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
47.69%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
48.98%
increased by 1.83%
1 Month
50.82%
increased by 3.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 21, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 154% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0275 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8015 | 30.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0424 | 2.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8541 | 0.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2039 | 0.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5741 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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