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V-Lab

First Trust Enhanced Stocks Bonds & Gold ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

18.96%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Week

43.16%

increased by 22.82%

1 Month

1,732.75%

increased by 1,712.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of First Trust Enhanced Stocks Bonds & Gold ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4813
89.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4890
126.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4813
-88.92***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5179
4.36***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2528
1.45

Persistence:

0.730

Half-life:

2 days