V-Lab
First Trust Enhanced Stocks Bonds & Gold ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.96%
1 Week
43.16%
1 Month
1,732.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4813 | 89.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4890 | 126.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4813 | -88.92*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5179 | 4.36*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2528 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.730
Half-life:
2 days
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