V-Lab
First Trust Enhanced Stocks Bonds & Gold ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.10%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Week
26.00%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
27.38%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8977 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1466 | 1.68* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6918 | 4.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7153 | -0.66 |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
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