V-Lab
First Trust Enhanced Stocks Bonds & Gold ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.53%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
24.38%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
25.74%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4268 | 4.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1802 | 1.91* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6984 | 14.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0600 | -0.55 |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
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