V-Lab
First Trust Enhanced Stocks Bonds & Gold ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.94%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Week
24.36%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Month
25.01%
decreased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5690 | 3.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 2.14** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8414 | 14.31*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7912 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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