V-Lab
Betapro S&P/Tsx CP FN 2X BUL MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.18%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Week
35.12%
decreased by 1.67%
1 Month
35.19%
decreased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8792 | 90.10*** |
| γleverage | 0.1650 | 9.98*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0491 | 1.57 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0792 | 2.41** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9067 | 24.25*** |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8792 | 90.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1650 | 9.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0491 | 1.57 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0792 | 2.41** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9067 | 24.25*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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