V-Lab
Betapro S&P/Tsx CP FN 2X BUL Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
27.06%
increased by 1.86%
1 Week
27.34%
increased by 2.14%
1 Month
28.26%
increased by 3.06%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3506 | 7.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1193 | 7.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8570 | 56.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0162 | 3.60*** |
| γ2 | -0.0189 | -3.21*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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