V-Lab
Betapro S&P/Tsx CP FN 2X BUL Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
26.82%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
27.12%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
28.14%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3528 | 7.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1179 | 7.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8588 | 57.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0163 | 3.67*** |
| γ2 | -0.0191 | -3.29*** |
0.977
Persistence29d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3528 | 7.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1179 | 7.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8588 | 57.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0163 | 3.67*** |
| γ2 | -0.0191 | -3.29*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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