V-Lab
Betapro S&P/Tsx CP FN 2X BUL Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
29.87%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
29.99%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Month
30.42%
decreased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3495 | 7.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1190 | 7.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8574 | 56.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0162 | 3.57*** |
| γ2 | -0.0188 | -3.17*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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