V-Lab
Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
0.44%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.44%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
0.44%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 3.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0085 | 6.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9949 | 198.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2878 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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