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V-Lab

Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

0.44%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.44%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.44%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0009
3.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0085
6.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9949
198.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.2878
0.37

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

135 days