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V-Lab

Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

0.44%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.61%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

0.87%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0005
14.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4038
10.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
6.41***

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days