V-Lab
Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
0.44%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.61%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
0.87%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 14.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4038 | 10.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 6.41*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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