V-Lab
Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
0.44%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
0.44%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
0.43%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4783 | 13.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0303 | 0.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3938 | 0.44 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0276 | 2.39** |
Persistence:
0.424
Half-life:
1 days
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