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V-Lab

Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

0.41%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.48%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

0.52%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026
Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3717
4.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
10.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.05
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0278
0.09
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9550
1.41

Persistence:

0.622

Half-life:

1 days