V-Lab
Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
0.41%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.48%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
0.52%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3717 | 4.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 10.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0278 | 0.09 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9550 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.622
Half-life:
1 days
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