V-Lab
Arabian Pipes Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
29.83%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
30.74%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
32.73%
increased by 2.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 2006 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 36% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0733 | 18.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8394 | 81.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0263 | 5.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0374 | 2.28** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0165 | 2.30** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9752 | 90.40*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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