V-Lab
Arabian Pipes Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
30.70%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
31.56%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
33.82%
increased by 2.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 2006 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5929 | 6.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0821 | 5.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8611 | 35.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1910 | -2.60*** |
| γ2 | 0.3975 | 3.61*** |
| γ3 | -0.3281 | -3.29*** |
| γ4 | 0.2325 | 1.79* |
| γ5 | -0.2609 | -1.91* |
| γ6 | 0.3235 | 2.77*** |
| γ7 | -0.2757 | -2.54** |
| γ8 | 0.1312 | 1.34 |
| γ9 | -0.0384 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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