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V-Lab

Arabian Pipes Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026

1 Day

30.70%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

31.56%

increased by 0.68%

1 Month

33.82%

increased by 2.94%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Arabian Pipes Co S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 2006 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5929
6.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0821
5.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8611
35.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.1910
-2.60***
γ20.3975
3.61***
γ3-0.3281
-3.29***
γ40.2325
1.79*
γ5-0.2609
-1.91*
γ60.3235
2.77***
γ7-0.2757
-2.54**
γ80.1312
1.34
γ9-0.0384
-0.62

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days