V-Lab
Arab CO. FOR AST M MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
40.52%
increased by 1.92%
1 Week
42.91%
increased by 4.31%
1 Month
46.73%
increased by 8.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2018 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2862 | 13.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3027 | 13.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0275 | 1.05 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.9700 | 0.71 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7656 | 0.72 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.603
Half-life:
1 days
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