V-Lab
Arab CO. FOR AST M GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
51.64%
increased by 8.12%
1 Week
52.70%
increased by 9.18%
1 Month
56.65%
increased by 13.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2018 to Aug 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 195 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 72.6249 | 5.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1472 | 55.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 1,628.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2436 | 24.90*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
195 days
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