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V-Lab

Arab CO. FOR AST M Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

40.96%

increased by 1.29%

1 Week

42.58%

increased by 2.91%

1 Month

44.19%

increased by 4.52%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Arab CO. FOR AST M S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2018 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0334
4.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2741
4.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4664
5.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ14.5615
3.62***
γ2-5.5033
-3.12***
γ30.4582
0.39
γ41.5973
1.22
γ5-2.8282
-1.86*
γ63.5654
2.66***
γ7-4.2299
-3.75***
γ85.0513
3.94***
γ9-3.8126
-4.07***

Persistence:

0.740

Half-life:

2 days