V-Lab
Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
54.20%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
54.20%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
54.20%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.6557 | 0.41 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9931 | 5.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1129 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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