V-Lab
Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
53.31%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
53.31%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
53.31%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 08:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 5.41 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 11.2779 | 0.43 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9869 | 2.88*** |
| νDF | 5.4131 | 0.18 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.2779 | 0.43 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9869 | 2.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4131 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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