V-Lab
Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
17.65%
1 Week
5,266,534,443.07%
1 Month
509,205,734,453,177,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 08:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | |
| βGARCH | 0.6366 | 1,649.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 1,445.09*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0152 | 82.06*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0230 | 574.88*** |
0.887
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6366 | 1,649.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 1,445.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0152 | 82.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0230 | 574.88*** |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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