Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
46.30%
1 Week
3,026,062,629.89%
1 Month
673,175,489,749,886,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.3238 | 31.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6314 | 111.29*** |
| γleverage | -0.3193 | -30.97*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9082 | 11.35*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
0.796
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3238 | 31.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6314 | 111.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3193 | -30.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9082 | 11.35*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.796
Half-life:
3 days
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