Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
70.13%
1 Week
72.83%
1 Month
84.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 09:59 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1004 trading days (~4.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9516 | 193.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.0953 | 10.81*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 9.9942 | 5.80*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2218 | 7.57*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7782 | 23.13*** |
0.999
Persistence1004d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9516 | 193.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0953 | 10.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.9942 | 5.80*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2218 | 7.57*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7782 | 23.13*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1004 days
Other Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs