V-Lab
Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
33.90%
1 Week
81.57%
1 Month
8,851.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 255 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8152 | 2,890.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3642 | 427.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.6715 | 6.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9306 | 31.39*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
255 days
Other Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs