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Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

70.13%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

72.83%

increased by 2.21%

1 Month

84.87%

increased by 14.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 09:59 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 22, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1004 trading days (~4.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1004 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9516
193.74***
γleverage0.0953
10.81***
λ₁tau intercept9.9942
5.80***
λ₂forecast adj.0.2218
7.57***
λ₃tau persistence0.7782
23.13***

0.999

Persistence

1004d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9516
193.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0953
10.81***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.9942
5.80***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2218
7.57***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7782
23.13***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1004 days