V-Lab
Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
35.63%
1 Week
584,468,293,750.82%
1 Month
516,508,238,075,638,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2025 to Sep 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1344 | 25.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.1344 | -25.75*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5964 | 3.79*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
0.067
Persistence0d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1344 | 25.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1344 | -25.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5964 | 3.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.067
Half-life:
0 days
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