V-Lab
Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.88%
1 Week
5,525,667,416.70%
1 Month
773,254,447,125,912,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4132 | 24.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6125 | 553.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4132 | -24.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0096 | 24.94*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0132 | 33.40*** |
Persistence:
0.819
Half-life:
3 days
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