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Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

35.63%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

584,468,293,750.82%

increased by 584,468,293,715.24%

1 Month

516,508,238,075,638,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 516,508,238,075,638,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:58 AM UTC

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graph of Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 22, 2025 to Sep 28, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.1344
25.74***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage-0.1344
-25.75***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.03
λ₂forecast adj.0.5964
3.79***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.50

0.067

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1344
25.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1344
-25.75***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.03
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5964
3.79***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.50

Persistence:

0.067

Half-life:

0 days