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V-Lab

Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

33.90%

decreased by 2.49%

1 Week

81.57%

increased by 45.18%

1 Month

8,851.80%

increased by 8,815.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Ninepoint Barrick Hghshs ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 22, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 255 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.08
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8152
2,890.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3642
427.50***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.6715
6.63***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9306
31.39***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

255 days