V-Lab
Kyoritsu Maintenance Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.80%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
30.06%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
30.56%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0179 | 13.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1844 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2462 | 2.25** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0020 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.431
Half-life:
1 days
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