V-Lab
Beijing Dalong Weiye Real Estate Development Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
40.48%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
41.57%
increased by 0.81%
1 Month
44.65%
increased by 3.89%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9144 | 5.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1032 | 8.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8495 | 45.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0102 | -0.19 |
| γ2 | 0.0757 | 1.00 |
| γ3 | -0.1962 | -4.42*** |
| γ4 | 0.2368 | 5.59*** |
| γ5 | -0.1720 | -3.99*** |
| γ6 | 0.1316 | 3.19*** |
| γ7 | -0.0985 | -3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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