V-Lab
Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
40.61%
1 Week
40.55%
1 Month
56.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
| βGARCH | 0.9711 | 627.30*** |
| γleverage | 0.0479 | 35.12*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1415 | 2.52** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7578 | 46.14*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9711 | 627.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0479 | 35.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1415 | 2.52** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7578 | 46.14*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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