Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
67.77%
increased by 2.50%
1 Week
67.76%
increased by 2.49%
1 Month
67.72%
increased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 4089 trading days (~16.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0920 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8378 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1400 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0035 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6395 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4089 days
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