V-Lab
Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
71.79%
decreased by 7.82%
1 Week
70.42%
decreased by 9.19%
1 Month
80.40%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.1291 | 4.29*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.7009 | 2.99*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2549 | 10.30*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7451 | 16.30*** |
0.065
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1291 | 4.29*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.7009 | 2.99*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2549 | 10.30*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7451 | 16.30*** |
Persistence:
0.065
Half-life:
0 days
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