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V-Lab

Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

67.77%

increased by 2.50%

1 Week

67.76%

increased by 2.49%

1 Month

67.72%

increased by 2.45%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 5, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 4089 trading days (~16.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0920
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8378
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1400
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0035
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6395

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

4089 days