Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
62.72%
decreased by 2.95%
1 Week
63.75%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Month
65.65%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 1.42 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0596 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8032 | 14.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.02 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4169 | 2.87*** |
Persistence:
0.870
Half-life:
5 days
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