Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
89.48%
increased by 2.28%
1 Week
90.64%
increased by 3.44%
1 Month
94.55%
increased by 7.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 50.5959 | 5.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1348 | 13.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9774 | 181.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8523 | 8.38*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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