Skip to main content
V-Lab

Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

44.42%

increased by 3.49%

1 Week

47.36%

increased by 6.43%

1 Month

57.06%

increased by 16.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 5, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

65.2566
5.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1464
18.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9906
422.97***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7357
13.57***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days