V-Lab
Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
70.39%
decreased by 9.36%
1 Week
72.34%
decreased by 7.41%
1 Month
78.84%
decreased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 4.04 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 49.0279 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.1455 | 3.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9808 | 57.64*** |
| νDF | 4.0414 | 2.17** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 49.0279 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1455 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9808 | 57.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0414 | 2.17** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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