V-Lab
Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
73.50%
increased by 11.72%
1 Week
75.00%
increased by 13.22%
1 Month
80.18%
increased by 18.40%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 3.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 50.0187 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.1359 | 4.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9843 | 71.44*** |
| νDF | 3.8775 | 2.56** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 50.0187 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1359 | 4.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9843 | 71.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8775 | 2.56** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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