V-Lab
Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
44.42%
increased by 3.49%
1 Week
47.36%
increased by 6.43%
1 Month
57.06%
increased by 16.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 65.2566 | 5.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1464 | 18.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9906 | 422.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7357 | 13.57*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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