V-Lab
Modern Avenue Group Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
36.46%
1 Week
38.52%
1 Month
41.87%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 23% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2121 | 27.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6642 | 47.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0393 | -4.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1558 | 2.76*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0582 | 2.99*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9244 | 36.32*** |
Persistence:
0.857
Half-life:
4 days
Other Modern Avenue Group Co Ltd Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities