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V-Lab

Modern Avenue Group Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

36.46%

decreased by 3.18%

1 Week

38.52%

decreased by 1.12%

1 Month

41.87%

increased by 2.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Modern Avenue Group Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 23% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2121
27.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6642
47.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0393
-4.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1558
2.76***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0582
2.99***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9244
36.32***

Persistence:

0.857

Half-life:

4 days