V-Lab
Modern Avenue Group Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.84%
decreased by 2.89%
1 Week
33.33%
decreased by 2.40%
1 Month
34.68%
decreased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0769 | 5.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1637 | 8.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7810 | 26.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0674 | 1.64 |
| γ2 | -0.1312 | -2.32** |
| γ3 | 0.0945 | 3.45*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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