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V-Lab

Modern Avenue Group Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

35.09%

decreased by 4.00%

1 Week

36.32%

decreased by 2.77%

1 Month

40.54%

increased by 1.45%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Modern Avenue Group Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.7379
4.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1533
37.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9881
328.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1171
12.86***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days