V-Lab
Modern Avenue Group Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
35.09%
decreased by 4.00%
1 Week
36.32%
decreased by 2.77%
1 Month
40.54%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.7379 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1533 | 37.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9881 | 328.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1171 | 12.86*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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