V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.89
increased by 0.19
1 Week
17.22
increased by 0.52
1 Month
21.49
increased by 4.79
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 180 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~180 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1856 | 8.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0674 | 14.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9287 | 183.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -1.07 |
0.996
Persistence180d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1856 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0674 | 14.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9287 | 183.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -1.07 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
180 days
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