V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
12.03
decreased by 0.65
1 Week
12.48
decreased by 0.20
1 Month
11.54
decreased by 1.14
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 765 trading days (~3.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1716 | 7.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0534 | 14.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9457 | 254.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0027 | -1.77* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
765 days
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