V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
13.71
decreased by 0.06
1 Week
13.29
decreased by 0.48
1 Month
14.30
increased by 0.53
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 814 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~814 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1700 | 7.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0532 | 14.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9459 | 257.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0026 | -1.68* |
0.999
Persistence814d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1700 | 7.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0532 | 14.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9459 | 257.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0026 | -1.68* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
814 days
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