V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.46
decreased by 0.31
1 Week
14.61
decreased by 0.16
1 Month
14.54
decreased by 0.23
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 821 trading days (~3.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~821 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1695 | 7.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.0533 | 14.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9458 | 256.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0025 | -1.67* |
0.999
Persistence821d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1695 | 7.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0533 | 14.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9458 | 256.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0025 | -1.67* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
821 days
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