Abbott Laboratories Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
13.53
increased by 0.89
1 Week
12.98
increased by 0.34
1 Month
12.57
decreased by 0.07
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 526 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~526 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0111 | 7.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0460 | 13.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9526 | 284.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -1.40 |
0.999
Persistence526d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0111 | 7.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 13.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9526 | 284.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -1.40 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
526 days
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