V-Lab
Shift4 Payments Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
707.79
increased by 50.93
1 Week
610.03
decreased by 46.83
1 Month
499.03
decreased by 157.83
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 292 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0754 | 7.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0787 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 87.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0837 | 0.65 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
292 days
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