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Shift4 Payments Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

707.79

increased by 50.93

1 Week

610.03

decreased by 46.83

1 Month

499.03

decreased by 157.83

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Shift4 Payments Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 5, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 292 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0754
7.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0787
7.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9189
87.47***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0837
0.65

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

292 days