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Shift4 Payments Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

451.22

decreased by 2.37

1 Week

457.83

increased by 4.24

1 Month

538.60

increased by 85.01

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Shift4 Payments Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 5, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 191 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~191 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0827
7.17***
αARCH0.0796
7.77***
βGARCH0.9167
85.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0205
0.24

0.996

Persistence

191d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0827
7.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0796
7.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9167
85.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0205
0.24

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

191 days