V-Lab
Shift4 Payments Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
348.16
increased by 19.08
1 Week
355.80
increased by 26.72
1 Month
421.94
increased by 92.86
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~146 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0949 | 7.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0815 | 7.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9138 | 83.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0167 | -0.25 |
0.995
Persistence146d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0949 | 7.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0815 | 7.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9138 | 83.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0167 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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