Shift4 Payments Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
278.63
decreased by 20.47
1 Week
279.06
decreased by 20.04
1 Month
311.06
increased by 11.96
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2020 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~135 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1000 | 7.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.0810 | 7.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9138 | 86.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0273 | -0.47 |
0.995
Persistence135d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1000 | 7.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0810 | 7.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9138 | 86.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0273 | -0.47 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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