V-Lab
Shift4 Payments Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
451.22
decreased by 2.37
1 Week
457.83
increased by 4.24
1 Month
538.60
increased by 85.01
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 191 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~191 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0827 | 7.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.0796 | 7.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9167 | 85.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0205 | 0.24 |
0.996
Persistence191d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0827 | 7.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0796 | 7.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9167 | 85.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0205 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
191 days
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