V-Lab
Shift4 Payments Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
687.62
decreased by 5.37
1 Week
684.46
decreased by 8.53
1 Month
619.22
decreased by 73.77
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2020 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 294 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0753 | 7.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 7.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9187 | 87.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0854 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
294 days
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