V-Lab
Cloudflare Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
25.56
decreased by 0.26
1 Week
25.46
decreased by 0.36
1 Month
25.41
decreased by 0.41
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 13, 2019 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 63 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0131 | 7.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0820 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9071 | 81.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0541 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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