V-Lab
Cloudflare Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
26.86
increased by 0.46
1 Week
24.76
decreased by 1.64
1 Month
24.64
decreased by 1.76
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 13, 2019 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 63 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0162 | 7.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0818 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9072 | 81.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0531 | -2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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