V-Lab
Chevron Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
7.20
decreased by 0.11
1 Week
7.36
increased by 0.05
1 Month
7.87
increased by 0.56
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 629 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~629 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0331 | 9.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.0398 | 11.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9591 | 273.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -1.18 |
0.999
Persistence629d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0331 | 9.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0398 | 11.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9591 | 273.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
629 days
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