V-Lab
Chevron Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
8.12
decreased by 0.24
1 Week
8.56
increased by 0.20
1 Month
8.63
increased by 0.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 632 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0333 | 9.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0398 | 11.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9591 | 273.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -1.09 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
632 days
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