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Chevron Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

6.95

increased by 0.07

1 Week

6.79

decreased by 0.09

1 Month

7.07

increased by 0.19

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/12/2024

to

10/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chevron Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0589
8.95***
αARCH0.0411
11.18***
βGARCH0.9589
38.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0094
2.61***

1.000

Persistence

99021d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0589
8.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0411
11.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9589
38.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0094
2.61***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days