V-Lab
Chevron Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
8.46
increased by 0.31
1 Week
8.33
increased by 0.18
1 Month
8.24
increased by 0.09
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 638 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0337 | 9.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0393 | 11.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9596 | 272.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0009 | -0.91 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
638 days
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