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CRA International Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

608.46

decreased by 53.22

1 Week

652.53

decreased by 9.15

1 Month

665.26

increased by 3.58

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CRA International Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 24, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 19804 trading days (~78.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~19804 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8863
3.37***
αARCH0.0940
0.98
βGARCH0.9060
9.49***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.8708
-2.80***
γ21.3542
2.76***
γ3-0.6747
-2.31**
γ40.2108
1.40
γ5-0.0196
-0.24
γ6-0.0572
-0.59

1.000

Persistence

19804d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8863
3.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0940
0.98
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9060
9.49***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.8708
-2.80***
γ21.3542
2.76***
γ3-0.6747
-2.31**
γ40.2108
1.40
γ5-0.0196
-0.24
γ6-0.0572
-0.59

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

19804 days