V-Lab
CRA International Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
672.22
increased by 50.47
1 Week
657.64
increased by 35.89
1 Month
832.93
increased by 211.18
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6515 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1009 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8991 | 0.06 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1.1473 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | 1.5215 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.3626 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.1342 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 0.1938 | 0.03 |
| γ6 | -0.1155 | -0.03 |
| γ7 | 0.0047 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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