CRA International Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
608.46
decreased by 53.22
1 Week
652.53
decreased by 9.15
1 Month
665.26
increased by 3.58
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 19804 trading days (~78.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~19804 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8863 | 3.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0940 | 0.98 |
| βGARCH | 0.9060 | 9.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.8708 | -2.80*** |
| γ2 | 1.3542 | 2.76*** |
| γ3 | -0.6747 | -2.31** |
| γ4 | 0.2108 | 1.40 |
| γ5 | -0.0196 | -0.24 |
| γ6 | -0.0572 | -0.59 |
1.000
Persistence19804d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8863 | 3.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0940 | 0.98 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9060 | 9.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.8708 | -2.80*** |
| γ2 | 1.3542 | 2.76*** |
| γ3 | -0.6747 | -2.31** |
| γ4 | 0.2108 | 1.40 |
| γ5 | -0.0196 | -0.24 |
| γ6 | -0.0572 | -0.59 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
19804 days
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