V-Lab
CRA International Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
809.64
decreased by 29.82
1 Week
891.66
increased by 52.20
1 Month
856.44
increased by 16.98
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6512 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1010 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8990 | 0.06 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1.1500 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | 1.5215 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.3564 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.1407 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 0.1991 | 0.02 |
| γ6 | -0.1202 | -0.02 |
| γ7 | 0.0141 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
Other CRA International Inc Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Equities