V-Lab
CRA International Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
896.33
1 Week
775.94
1 Month
868.13
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1884 | 0.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4278 | 4.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1884 | -0.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.12 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1715 | 0.10 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8285 | 2.97*** |
Persistence:
0.522
Half-life:
1 days
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