V-Lab
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
9,767.64
1 Week
10,431.03
1 Month
8,439.26
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 114 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1936 | 9.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8129 | 229.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0253 | -0.73 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.7761 | 53.64*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9982 | 1,236.91*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
114 days
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