V-Lab
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
3,759.49
1 Week
5,424.03
1 Month
8,469.08
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1942 | 9.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8123 | 230.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0251 | -0.72 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.2720 | 54.84*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9982 | 1,240.01*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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