V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
10.65
1 Week
10.68
1 Month
10.33
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0531 | 1.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8941 | 302.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0531 | -0.64 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1187 | 2.37** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3526 | 5.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6400 | 3.19*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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