V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
13.35
1 Week
13.26
1 Month
11.44
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0533 | 9.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8938 | 77.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0533 | -3.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1260 | 1.47 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3520 | 11.97*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6403 | 21.74*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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