V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10.76
decreased by 0.07
1 Week
10.58
decreased by 0.25
1 Month
11.14
increased by 0.31
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 482 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 278% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0667 | 7.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0174 | 16.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9570 | 1,216.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0483 | 24.06*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
482 days
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