International Business Machines Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12.48
decreased by 0.16
1 Week
12.85
increased by 0.21
1 Month
12.38
decreased by 0.26
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 465 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 288% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0667 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0169 | 16.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9573 | 1,217.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0487 | 24.29*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
465 days
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