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International Business Machines Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026

1 Day

13.01

decreased by 0.16

1 Week

12.70

decreased by 0.47

1 Month

11.25

decreased by 1.92

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of International Business Machines Corp ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 469 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 277% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0688
2.05**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0175
4.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9568
302.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0484
6.02***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

469 days