V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
13.01
decreased by 0.16
1 Week
12.70
decreased by 0.47
1 Month
11.25
decreased by 1.92
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 469 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 277% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0688 | 2.05** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0175 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9568 | 302.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0484 | 6.02*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
469 days
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