V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.98
increased by 0.20
1 Week
5.66
decreased by 0.12
1 Month
5.67
decreased by 0.11
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 903 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 160% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0188 | 6.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0196 | 19.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9641 | 1,348.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0312 | 18.97*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
903 days
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