ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
6.16
decreased by 0.10
1 Week
6.37
increased by 0.11
1 Month
6.55
increased by 0.29
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 884 trading days (~3.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 157% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0184 | 6.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0198 | 19.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9639 | 1,344.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0311 | 18.70*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
884 days
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