Mondelez International Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
28.77
increased by 0.07
1 Week
29.24
increased by 0.54
1 Month
24.01
decreased by 4.69
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 382 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 73% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~382 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 73% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1399 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.0488 | 6.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9315 | 202.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.0357 | 2.62*** |
0.998
Persistence382d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1399 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0488 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9315 | 202.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0357 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
382 days
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