V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.73
increased by 0.49
1 Week
18.74
increased by 0.50
1 Month
22.83
increased by 4.59
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 392 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 74% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~392 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 74% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1347 | 2.42** |
| αARCH | 0.0486 | 6.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9316 | 202.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.0360 | 2.63*** |
0.998
Persistence392d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1347 | 2.42** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0486 | 6.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9316 | 202.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0360 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
392 days
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