V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
24.53
decreased by 1.45
1 Week
25.73
decreased by 0.25
1 Month
27.03
increased by 1.05
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 390 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 75% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1367 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0480 | 6.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9321 | 203.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0361 | 2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
390 days
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