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Howmet Aerospace Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

29.42

increased by 4.16

1 Week

26.97

increased by 1.71

1 Month

26.28

increased by 1.02

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 962 trading days (~3.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 165% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2581
8.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0316
24.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9415
1,010.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0523
23.79***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

962 days