Howmet Aerospace Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.58
decreased by 0.93
1 Week
28.72
decreased by 0.79
1 Month
28.93
decreased by 0.58
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 911 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 166% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2646 | 8.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0315 | 24.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9415 | 1,008.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0524 | 23.60*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
911 days
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