V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
30.48
increased by 0.51
1 Week
30.91
increased by 0.94
1 Month
27.85
decreased by 2.12
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1024 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 165% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2482 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0316 | 6.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9416 | 253.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0522 | 5.98*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1024 days
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