V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
29.42
increased by 4.16
1 Week
26.97
increased by 1.71
1 Month
26.28
increased by 1.02
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 962 trading days (~3.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 165% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2581 | 8.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0316 | 24.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9415 | 1,010.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0523 | 23.79*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
962 days
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