News Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
136.88
increased by 17.90
1 Week
121.12
increased by 2.14
1 Month
120.13
increased by 1.15
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 279 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 203% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8341 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0224 | 9.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9523 | 613.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0455 | 9.75*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
279 days
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