V-Lab
News Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
116.76
decreased by 1.14
1 Week
121.53
increased by 3.63
1 Month
142.53
increased by 24.63
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 271 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 199% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8674 | 1.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0230 | 2.51** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9515 | 153.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0459 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
271 days
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