News Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
113.80
decreased by 1.14
1 Week
114.83
decreased by 0.11
1 Month
120.83
increased by 5.89
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 291 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 207% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8031 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0221 | 9.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9526 | 617.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0458 | 9.84*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
291 days
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