V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
11.02
increased by 0.30
1 Week
10.68
decreased by 0.04
1 Month
9.64
decreased by 1.08
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 233 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 242% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0770 | 10.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0202 | 15.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9523 | 973.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0490 | 19.67*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
233 days
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