V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
9.52
decreased by 0.30
1 Week
10.19
increased by 0.37
1 Month
9.88
increased by 0.06
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 239 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 242% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0771 | 10.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0202 | 15.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9524 | 976.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0489 | 19.98*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
239 days
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